Monte Prediction

A weekly challenge where you provide a million scenarios in eleven dimensions.

Weekly log-likelihood scores

June 17, 2024

name score
at3325 2.0432
csharpconsultant 0.6934
thomaswcole 0.3751
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.2639
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.2062
DarkPanther 0.1795
Original gangster 0.1619
Captain Nemo 0.1583
weirdsamples 0.1078
2And20_V3 0.0000
tman7479 0.0000

June 10, 2024

name score
at3325 2.6222
thomaswcole 0.2914
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.2863
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.2323
Fred Viole 0.1022
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.0027
2And20_V3 0.0001

June 03, 2024

name score
at3325 10.6882
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 5.0842
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 5.0750
thomaswcole 0.9834
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.8754
Fred Viole 0.4058
2And20_V3 0.0001

May 27, 2024

name score
Fred Viole 2.0328
thomaswcole 0.7259
at3325 0.6660
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.3500
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.0855
2And20_V3 NaN

May 20, 2024

name score
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 17.4045
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 5.9011
at3325 3.8743
weirdsamples 1.7515
thomaswcole 1.0209
Original gangster 0.9978
Fred Viole 0.7995
2And20_V3 0.0002
2And20_V2 0.0001

May 13, 2024

name score
szitas_dot_juraj13 7.1056
weirdsamples 7.1052
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 3.6058
Fred Viole 2.9421
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 1.1641
James Don 0.8164
thomaswcole 0.7999
GFN 0.6635
at3325 0.6433
gredin 0.0026

May 06, 2024

name score
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 2.4913
joakim_dot_arvidsson 2.0177
at3325 1.6083
thomaswcole 0.4935
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.2522
Fred Viole 0.1982

April 29, 2024

name score
leo 20.5978
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 15.6176
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 7.2685
at3325 4.5270
thomaswcole 2.5231
Original gangster 2.2318
Fred Viole 1.1285
joakim_dot_arvidsson 0.8999
gredin 0.1890

April 22, 2024

name score
at3325 0.0703
thomaswcole 0.0515
joakim_dot_arvidsson 0.0239
Fred Viole 0.0197
Original gangster 0.0114
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.0025
gredin 0.0004
leo 0.0001
Outmaane 0.0000

April 15, 2024

name score
nubcoder 11.5143
Fred Viole 2.8939
Original gangster 1.1607
joakim_dot_arvidsson 1.0352
thomaswcole 0.5985
gredin 0.2671
Outmaane 0.0006
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.0000

April 08, 2024

name score
at3325 0.3978
thomaswcole 0.2357
joakim_dot_arvidsson 0.1882
Kiwi 0.1616
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.0459
Fred Viole 0.0133
gredin 0.0012

April 01, 2024

name score
Fred Viole 9.1136
rlang_example 6.2536
vlad_dot_tasca 4.6213
Kiwi 4.1649
Original gangster 1.5349
b_dot_anant 1.2320
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.3193
gredin 0.0001

March 25, 2024

name score
Kiwi 0.9281
Original gangster 0.5819
trs6946 0.4841
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.2884
david_dot_russell_dot_hopkins 0.2248

March 18, 2024

name score
leo 15.6965
Kiwi 1.2389
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.2834

March 11, 2024

name score
abdul_dot_emad0 0.9019
Original gangster 0.6853
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.1841

March 04, 2024

name score
Original gangster 2.2424
saffar488 1.5092

February 26, 2024

name score
gredin 0.0002

February 19, 2024

name score
gredin 0.0034

February 12, 2024

name score
dtello 1.0038
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.2897
gredin 0.0054

February 05, 2024

name score
langchain101 0.3166

January 29, 2024

name score
Original gangster 0.2187
nobody 0.1636
ladsf987asdf87as987afsd 0.1502
empirical 0.1497