Monte Prediction

A weekly challenge where you provide a million scenarios in eleven dimensions.

Weekly log-likelihood scores

July 22, 2024

name score
at3325 0.4835
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.1736
haganezuka 0.1629
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.1338
leo 0.1197
Captain Nemo 0.1098
petit chafariz 0.1067
thomaswcole 0.1062
snoringkitty 0.1061
ElevenEspresso 0.1030
Original gangster 0.0897
at_experimental 0.0812
csharpconsultant 0.0738
smooth_contributor 0.0630
wonkenobi 0.0360
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.0252
weirdsamples 0.0251
Fred Viole 0.0096
2And20_V3 0.0000
tman7479 0.0000

July 15, 2024

name score
weirdsamples 0.6668
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.3394
at3325 0.2739
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.2732
thomaswcole 0.1945
ElevenEspresso 0.1835
smooth_contributor 0.1182
Fred Viole 0.0082
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.0024
2And20_V3 0.0000

July 08, 2024

name score
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 2.6934
haganezuka 2.3992
csharpconsultant 1.2982
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.8369
petit chafariz 0.7931
weirdsamples 0.7434
leo 0.6950
thomaswcole 0.6903
Captain Nemo 0.5085
Fred Viole 0.2224
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.1858
snoringkitty 0.1368
smooth_contributor 0.1213
wonkenobi 0.0609
tman7479 0.0305
2And20_V3 0.0000
at3325 NaN

July 01, 2024

name score
csharpconsultant 60.6975
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 17.0537
at3325 15.9288
leo 11.5425
Fred Viole 11.3954
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 9.5611
thomaswcole 2.8151
Yaa-man 2.5300
tman7479 2.4942
szitas_dot_juraj13 1.7362
Captain Nemo 1.6507
weirdsamples 0.6568
smooth_contributor 0.6173
snoringkitty 0.1498
2And20_V3 NaN

June 24, 2024

name score
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 126.7191
Fred Viole 50.6860
leo 32.1889
at3325 22.0642
szitas_dot_juraj13 16.5887
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 14.6636
snoringkitty 9.4377
petit chafariz 6.9116
smooth_contributor 6.1261
thomaswcole 4.8569
Lazy Copycat 2.9772
Captain Nemo 2.3308
weirdsamples 1.8623
2And20_V3 0.0008

June 17, 2024

name score
at3325 2.0432
csharpconsultant 0.6934
thomaswcole 0.3751
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.2639
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.2062
DarkPanther 0.1795
Original gangster 0.1619
Captain Nemo 0.1583
weirdsamples 0.1078
2And20_V3 0.0000
tman7479 0.0000

June 10, 2024

name score
at3325 2.6222
thomaswcole 0.2914
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.2863
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.2323
Fred Viole 0.1022
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.0027
2And20_V3 0.0001

June 03, 2024

name score
at3325 10.6882
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 5.0842
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 5.0750
thomaswcole 0.9834
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.8754
Fred Viole 0.4058
2And20_V3 0.0001

May 27, 2024

name score
Fred Viole 2.0328
thomaswcole 0.7259
at3325 0.6660
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.3500
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.0855
2And20_V3 NaN

May 20, 2024

name score
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 17.4045
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 5.9011
at3325 3.8743
weirdsamples 1.7515
thomaswcole 1.0209
Original gangster 0.9978
Fred Viole 0.7995
2And20_V3 0.0002
2And20_V2 0.0001

May 13, 2024

name score
szitas_dot_juraj13 7.1056
weirdsamples 7.1052
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 3.6058
Fred Viole 2.9421
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 1.1641
James Don 0.8164
thomaswcole 0.7999
GFN 0.6635
at3325 0.6433
petit chafariz 0.0026

May 06, 2024

name score
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 2.4913
joakim_dot_arvidsson 2.0177
at3325 1.6083
thomaswcole 0.4935
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.2522
Fred Viole 0.1982

April 29, 2024

name score
leo 20.5978
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 15.6176
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 7.2685
at3325 4.5270
thomaswcole 2.5231
Original gangster 2.2318
Fred Viole 1.1285
joakim_dot_arvidsson 0.8999
petit chafariz 0.1890

April 22, 2024

name score
at3325 0.0703
thomaswcole 0.0515
joakim_dot_arvidsson 0.0239
Fred Viole 0.0197
Original gangster 0.0114
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.0025
petit chafariz 0.0004
leo 0.0001
Outmaane 0.0000

April 15, 2024

name score
nubcoder 11.5143
Fred Viole 2.8939
Original gangster 1.1607
joakim_dot_arvidsson 1.0352
thomaswcole 0.5985
petit chafariz 0.2671
Outmaane 0.0006
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.0000

April 08, 2024

name score
at3325 0.3978
thomaswcole 0.2357
joakim_dot_arvidsson 0.1882
Kiwi 0.1616
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.0459
Fred Viole 0.0133
petit chafariz 0.0012

April 01, 2024

name score
Fred Viole 9.1136
rlang_example 6.2536
vlad_dot_tasca 4.6213
Kiwi 4.1649
Original gangster 1.5349
b_dot_anant 1.2320
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.3193
petit chafariz 0.0001

March 25, 2024

name score
Kiwi 0.9281
Original gangster 0.5819
trs6946 0.4841
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.2884
david_dot_russell_dot_hopkins 0.2248

March 18, 2024

name score
leo 15.6965
Kiwi 1.2389
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.2834

March 11, 2024

name score
abdul_dot_emad0 0.9019
Original gangster 0.6853
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.1841

March 04, 2024

name score
Original gangster 2.2424
saffar488 1.5092

February 26, 2024

name score
petit chafariz 0.0002

February 19, 2024

name score
petit chafariz 0.0034

February 12, 2024

name score
dtello 1.0038
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.2897
petit chafariz 0.0054

February 05, 2024

name score
langchain101 0.3166

January 29, 2024

name score
Original gangster 0.2187
nobody 0.1636
ladsf987asdf87as987afsd 0.1502
empirical 0.1497