Monte Prediction

A weekly challenge where you provide a million scenarios in eleven dimensions.

Weekly log-likelihood scores

September 09, 2024

name score
weirdsamples 0.0166
smooth_correlator 0.0119
Black swan enjoyer 0.0104
ElevenEspresso 0.0104
"petit chafariz" 0.0087
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.0066
thomaswcole 0.0045
mturk24 0.0036
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.0024
snoringkitty 0.0012
at3325 0.0006
Fred Viole 0.0005
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.0002
bloopinator 0.0000
at_experimental 0.0000
wonkenobi 0.0000
tman7479 0.0000
csharpconsultant 0.0000

September 02, 2024

name score
szitas_dot_juraj13 18.1174
at3325 15.6096
tman7479 11.8719
at_experimental 8.2686
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 5.2412
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 4.5709
vms 4.5513
"petit chafariz" 3.1250
weirdsamples 2.9707
Fred Viole 2.7196
thomaswcole 2.1022
jeremy.og 1.7341
jeremy.og 1.6670
mturk24 1.5298
smooth_correlator 1.4254
ElevenEspresso 1.0803
braden_dot_abshire 0.9681
snoringkitty 0.7923
wonkenobi 0.1716
csharpconsultant 0.0000
bloopinator NaN

August 26, 2024

name score
tman7479 24.4058
weirdsamples 21.2314
szitas_dot_juraj13 18.9661
csharpconsultant 17.0051
Crunchy Granola 13.4853
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 13.2358
at_experimental 12.8880
mturk24 9.3218
Fred Viole 8.9323
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 7.3485
at3325 6.0518
thomaswcole 2.6950
ElevenEspresso 2.0244
snoringkitty 0.4861
wonkenobi 0.0483
bloopinator NaN

August 19, 2024

name score
at3325 0.6151
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.1747
thomaswcole 0.0857
"petit chafariz" 0.0772
smooth_correlator 0.0638
monteprediction1 0.0519
leo 0.0439
ElevenEspresso 0.0314
Fred Viole 0.0281
weirdsamples 0.0179
snoringkitty 0.0164
at_experimental 0.0157
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.0151
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.0124
tman7479 0.0091
wonkenobi 0.0036
csharpconsultant 0.0001
bloopinator NaN

August 12, 2024

name score
at_experimental 141.7196
csharpconsultant 117.4243
szitas_dot_juraj13 45.5561
tman7479 42.7453
weirdsamples 20.7277
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 8.6711
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 8.6629
at3325 5.4601
leo 4.7060
monteprediction1 4.6632
snoringkitty 4.5972
Fred Viole 4.4552
"petit chafariz" 3.7488
smooth_correlator 1.3844
ElevenEspresso 1.3653
TIA Labs LLC 1.0862
wonkenobi 0.3910
bloopinator NaN

August 05, 2024

name score
ElevenEspresso 0.0020
"petit chafariz" 0.0019
thomaswcole 0.0010
smooth_correlator 0.0010
weirdsamples 0.0008
wonkenobi 0.0007
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.0004
snoringkitty 0.0002
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.0001
at3325 0.0001
tman7479 0.0000
bloopinator 0.0000
leo 0.0000
Fred Viole 0.0000
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.0000
monteprediction1 0.0000
at_experimental 0.0000
csharpconsultant 0.0000

July 29, 2024

name score
at3325 9.7819
monteprediction1 2.9974
weirdsamples 2.6343
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 2.2961
szitas_dot_juraj13 2.0039
Captain Nemo 1.9062
thomaswcole 1.1147
ElevenEspresso 0.8341
at_experimental 0.3231
csharpconsultant 0.2259
Fred Viole 0.1514
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.1197
leo 0.1059
wonkenobi 0.0975
smooth_correlator 0.0036
bloopinator 0.0000
tman7479 0.0000

July 22, 2024

name score
at3325 0.4835
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.1736
monteprediction1 0.1629
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.1338
leo 0.1197
Captain Nemo 0.1098
"petit chafariz" 0.1067
thomaswcole 0.1062
snoringkitty 0.1061
ElevenEspresso 0.1030
Original gangster 0.0897
at_experimental 0.0812
csharpconsultant 0.0738
smooth_correlator 0.0630
wonkenobi 0.0360
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.0252
weirdsamples 0.0251
Fred Viole 0.0096
bloopinator 0.0000
tman7479 0.0000

July 15, 2024

name score
weirdsamples 0.6668
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.3394
at3325 0.2739
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.2732
thomaswcole 0.1945
ElevenEspresso 0.1835
smooth_correlator 0.1182
Fred Viole 0.0082
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.0024
bloopinator 0.0000

July 08, 2024

name score
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 2.6934
monteprediction1 2.3992
csharpconsultant 1.2982
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.8369
"petit chafariz" 0.7931
weirdsamples 0.7434
leo 0.6950
thomaswcole 0.6903
Captain Nemo 0.5085
Fred Viole 0.2224
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.1858
snoringkitty 0.1368
smooth_correlator 0.1213
wonkenobi 0.0609
tman7479 0.0305
bloopinator 0.0000
at3325 NaN

July 01, 2024

name score
csharpconsultant 60.6975
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 17.0537
at3325 15.9288
leo 11.5425
Fred Viole 11.3954
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 9.5611
thomaswcole 2.8151
Yaa-man 2.5300
tman7479 2.4942
szitas_dot_juraj13 1.7362
Captain Nemo 1.6507
weirdsamples 0.6568
smooth_correlator 0.6173
snoringkitty 0.1498
bloopinator NaN

June 24, 2024

name score
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 126.7191
Fred Viole 50.6860
leo 32.1889
at3325 22.0642
szitas_dot_juraj13 16.5887
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 14.6636
snoringkitty 9.4377
petit chafariz 6.9116
smooth_correlator 6.1261
thomaswcole 4.8569
Lazy Copycat 2.9772
Captain Nemo 2.3308
weirdsamples 1.8623
bloopinator 0.0008

June 17, 2024

name score
at3325 2.0432
csharpconsultant 0.6934
thomaswcole 0.3751
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.2639
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.2062
DarkPanther 0.1795
Original gangster 0.1619
Captain Nemo 0.1583
weirdsamples 0.1078
bloopinator 0.0000
tman7479 0.0000

June 10, 2024

name score
at3325 2.6222
thomaswcole 0.2914
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.2863
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.2323
Fred Viole 0.1022
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.0027
bloopinator 0.0001

June 03, 2024

name score
at3325 10.6882
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 5.0842
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 5.0750
thomaswcole 0.9834
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.8754
Fred Viole 0.4058
bloopinator 0.0001

May 27, 2024

name score
Fred Viole 2.0328
thomaswcole 0.7259
at3325 0.6660
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.3500
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.0855
bloopinator NaN

May 20, 2024

name score
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 17.4045
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 5.9011
at3325 3.8743
weirdsamples 1.7515
thomaswcole 1.0209
Original gangster 0.9978
Fred Viole 0.7995
bloopinator 0.0002
2And20_V2 0.0001

May 13, 2024

name score
szitas_dot_juraj13 7.1056
weirdsamples 7.1052
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 3.6058
Fred Viole 2.9421
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 1.1641
James Don 0.8164
thomaswcole 0.7999
GFN 0.6635
at3325 0.6433
"petit chafariz" 0.0026

May 06, 2024

name score
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 2.4913
joakim_dot_arvidsson 2.0177
at3325 1.6083
thomaswcole 0.4935
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.2522
Fred Viole 0.1982

April 29, 2024

name score
leo 20.5978
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 15.6176
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 7.2685
at3325 4.5270
thomaswcole 2.5231
Original gangster 2.2318
Fred Viole 1.1285
joakim_dot_arvidsson 0.8999
"petit chafariz" 0.1890

April 22, 2024

name score
at3325 0.0703
thomaswcole 0.0515
joakim_dot_arvidsson 0.0239
Fred Viole 0.0197
Original gangster 0.0114
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.0025
"petit chafariz" 0.0004
leo 0.0001
Outmaane 0.0000

April 15, 2024

name score
nubcoder 11.5143
Fred Viole 2.8939
Original gangster 1.1607
joakim_dot_arvidsson 1.0352
thomaswcole 0.5985
"petit chafariz" 0.2671
Outmaane 0.0006
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.0000

April 08, 2024

name score
at3325 0.3978
thomaswcole 0.2357
joakim_dot_arvidsson 0.1882
Kiwi 0.1616
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.0459
Fred Viole 0.0133
"petit chafariz" 0.0012

April 01, 2024

name score
Fred Viole 9.1136
rlang_example 6.2536
vlad_dot_tasca 4.6213
Kiwi 4.1649
Original gangster 1.5349
b_dot_anant 1.2320
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.3193
"petit chafariz" 0.0001

March 25, 2024

name score
Kiwi 0.9281
Original gangster 0.5819
trs6946 0.4841
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.2884
david_dot_russell_dot_hopkins 0.2248

March 18, 2024

name score
leo 15.6965
Kiwi 1.2389
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.2834

March 11, 2024

name score
abdul_dot_emad0 0.9019
Original gangster 0.6853
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.1841

March 04, 2024

name score
Original gangster 2.2424
saffar488 1.5092

February 26, 2024

name score
"petit chafariz" 0.0002

February 19, 2024

name score
"petit chafariz" 0.0034

February 12, 2024

name score
dtello 1.0038
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.2897
"petit chafariz" 0.0054

February 05, 2024

name score
langchain101 0.3166

January 29, 2024

name score
Original gangster 0.2187
nobody 0.1636
ladsf987asdf87as987afsd 0.1502
empirical 0.1497